Wednesday, October 23, 2024

So here's Tropical Soulvangelical's regular check-in where the "Doomsday Election" is concerned. You might have rightly guessed that TSV's recently tuned into Allan Lichtman's youtube channel and a couple of interviews again, but he also wants to see what the "business bettors" on the election say too. Even when the Centrist Donkeys were in the process of kicking Biden out of the election, Insurgent itself at least showed that Biden was getting a 53% business bettor rate to -trump's- 47%. So TSV imagines that Kamala's probably getting even better, though TSV doesn't care to try to guesstimate accordingly. But he still sees the Insurgent of October 2024 essentially pulling their hair out and biting their nails, and he thinks this is for a number of reasons. Understandably you don't want people to say, oh well -I- don't need to donate or volunteer because Allan Lichtman says Harris is going to win anyway, and then take on an illusion of invulnerability. Not taking things for granted TSV sees as reasonably healthful. Where he sees Insurgent going, and even late show comics, is -not- particularly healthful. Both Insurgent and the comics he sees as relying solely on polls, even though he's also seeing the same polls come under criticism for undercounting or overcounting key groups, whichever those may be. He sees both of them as being in the same exact place TSV was before he started periodically doing Lichtman videos and election stress videos, and then being -very selective- where Insurgent is concerned. He's going to need to do that for the comics as well, so in the meantime he's coping with everyone else disregarding Lichtman's keys to the White House and the business bettors, both of which have a better track record than the polls, in favor of said unreliable polls, by doing non-election- and mostly non-political- videos like mysteries regarding disappearing people or weird space signals, or facts about science and history, as well as scifi as he sees them appearing in his lists. At the same time he's doing what he's deciding to do where the election is concerned, and he's deciding not to do more than he's planning lest that become a neurotic exercise like in 2004. Again he's looking back at 2004 as a lesson of what -not- to do. He does think that some late show comics want him to feel guilty about "not doing more, just in case," but he thinks that's really just an uncalled-for guilt trip. TSV thinks back to the many quotes and passages attributed to Ben Franklin, and he thinks that the passages are tailored toward a present day guilt trippy anxiety he doesn't think Ben Franklin ever intended. David McCullough's accounts of 1776 portrayed the -real- pitfall America faced, because the country's founders could have been hanged for what they were doing, so not even 2004 or 2016 TSV thinks even remotely resembles the account of 1776. So here's what he asks of Insurgent. Do you really think 2024 is as bad as 1776, right now in late October? Or is the only way they can answer that question is for them to say, we'll let you know when the election is over.

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