Tropical Soulvangelical skimmed through the Wikipedia article about Allan Lichtman with great interest, but frankly finds absolutely no reassurance in Mr. Lichtman's prediction of a Harris win. This is because despite that Keys To The White House set of 13 true-or-false questions, TSV finds it just sets up a very fatal overconfidence and wishful thinking situation. He's going to look back to see what Mr. Lichtman said about 2004, Bush-Kerry, because that's the election that this year's election reminds him of, mainly because of the doomsday trope that leads TSV to believe that -trump- may very well win by a landslide -but- TSV doesn't believe that means the automatic end of democracy no matter what -trump- tries to do. In order for that to happen, TSV believes that all democratic activists would need to be jumping off bridges the Wednesday after, and you don't need to be Allan Lichtman to tell you that that's just not realistic. You just need life experience with TSV has -a little more of- than he did 20 years ago. That's partly because if this race is close, -trump- won't have a mandate to kill democracy, and if the race is supposedly more about the economy than about democracy, -trump's- mandate would be about economics rather than democracy. That said, TSV only partially agrees with Hillary Clinton and Michael Cohen that -trump- would at least -try- to do a lot of damage, but TSV looks back to -trump's- attempt to repeal Funny Named Care. Sure it was because of John McCain that that didn't happen, but TSV observes that -trump- never tried to as actively repeal Funny Named Care during the remainder of his term. So begins TSV's skepticism about the doomsday trope though he can never fully rule it out. It's going to concern him that on those Insurgent 'radio' segments he hears about the doomsday trope that there's going to be a whole variety of possibly logical fallacy type arguments, including red herring, that are going to be made about how supposedly doomsday is inevitable if the wrong side of the coin faces up when tossed and landing to the ground. By contrast, TSV would greatly follow any critique Michael Cohen might make of KTTWH in what TSV expects to be Mr. Cohen's case as to why KTTWH cannot possibly predict the election with accuracy this time around, because Mr. Cohen knows -trump- far better than Mr. Lichtman does, and how -trump- himself is not one of the 13 keys. Maybe there needs to be a 14th -trump- key? But one last thing that TSV found great interest in is Mr. Lichtman's strong disagreement with the Centrist Donkeys' decision to pressure Biden out of the race, partly because TSV and Mr. Lichtman appear in agreement that the Centrist Donkeys did in fact -pressure- Biden out of the race. But TSV wants the Democratic Coalition to make plans for a New Resistance because, again, despite Mr. Lichtman's predictions, TSV points to how a close race tends to favor a Not-Donkey candidate and not a Donkey one, and hence TSV sees no realistic path to victory for Harris. He'd like to be wrong that Mr. Lichtman would be right, but he wishes closeness of race, too, were one of the KTTWH's.

Tropical Soulvanglical doesn't think Eric Adams should resign out of being indicted, but TSV feels realistic enough to believe that Mr. Adams should not run for a second term. He's already unpopular with 28% of the vote, and the indictments only serve to counter Mr. Adams's pro-principle arguments, but here's the thing. It's Mr. Adams himself -standing- for principle that TSV sees at stake, not the concept of principle itself. But that hasn't stopped what TSV observes as the highly -unprincipled- extreme Squad as getting political capital out of saying he should resign immediately. They appear to wish to not only win but -dominate- the politics of Gracie Mansion in terms of the culture of personal corruption in the city to the opposing viewpoints of those value voter city residents who believe, like TSV, that National Principle taking the form of Municipal Principle has to be top priority, even above economic interests. TSV doesn't believe -for a second- that a Squad Mayor of New York City would even -consider- reaching out to pro-principle value voters, because from the point of view of a Squad Mayor, if one point of view is false, namely Eric Adams himself, then the other one somehow -must- be true, and that's the apparent point of view that the concept of principle doesn't matter either philosphically or culturally, and are too likely to use the office of Mayor to browbeat the residents accordingly instead of helping solve their problems.

Tropical Soulvangelical's taking a momentary break from what he sees as a generally hopeless election to talk about the racketeering and sex slavery, etc., that Diddy's been accused of. He wants to caution young singles in their 20s and 30s wanting to go on dating adventures in this day and age about which persons and groups they hook up with online, particularly at -adult- dating sites. So it's the accusations against Diddy and what the big guy upstairs personally -convicted- Jeffrey Epstein of doing when the latter killed himself. So in the end, Epstein -did- face accountability far greater than he did on Earth, because it'll last for all eternity for him. So while TSV allows me the Happy Bachelor to still socialize with my Happy Bachelor Girlfriends, he's choosing a more spiritually aware celibacy for himself and has decided not to date, because we live in too corrupt a society for that dating practice not to be tantamount to looking the other way. Dating, he now believes, and since the failures of humanity to really take good hard lessons out of the pandemic, is aiding and abetting immorality at large. He hasn't ruled out finding the right person namely by chance with whom "it just happened," but he knows that's still within the boundaries of right-and-wrong, and dating by contrast is -not- within those boundaries anymore. So his cautioning to young people is to watch out for what he calls those Nubile Nickies on the adult sites promising a willing partner for anyone who goes to a Nubile Nicky event, plying, naturally, Nicky's Nubiles, because once you get there, you see the potential partners as not appearing of-age or whose body language suggests going through the motions because it's all under hidden duress. TSV has next to no confidence that said dating sites would ever effectively police themselves of these Nubile Nicky types, and the accusations that Diddy's accused of essentially point to him being a Nubile Nicky type, particularly him drugging his victims, getting them to have sex and catching it all on camera as a form of blackmail. TSV's pretty sure most adventurous singles in their 20s and 30s are reacting with outright -surprise- that any hip or happening party animal type they may find fun with could -ever- be accused of such heinous acts. TSV, on the other hand, is as far from surprised as anyone can get. What he's heard fits the profile of a Nubile Nicky, a -pimp- of sorts rather, like a hand in glove. Ever since he's seen humanity morally failing in the post-pandemic world, he's always suspected there being numerous Nubile Nicky types out there, so the only thing he -is- surprised about is having one being confirmed for him. TSV never thought he could ever be that spot-on. So he wants adventurous young singles to watch out for their own personal safety and each other's while they're at it, but also to think about how their adventure-seeking is both blinding them to the immoralities of the party organizers promising a good time and looking the other way from the suffering of their victims. Most of all is the attention they give said organizers to make the latter feel like, I Can Do Anything I Want, which is -the- immorality of the 2010s, and which there was that divine punishment to all humankind in the form of the pandemic, and how we cheated ourselves out of an opportunity to come clean, repent and hold ourselves accountable. That's what TSV sees the Diddy case being all about, and -another- suspicion he has is -trump- possibly in raising funds to pay his legal fees and campaign financing hawking tee shirts reading Diddy Did Nothing Wrong.

Tropical Soulvanglical is likely going to be repeating himself here until, and maybe after Election Day, but he's becoming skeptical with respect to this being a so-called Doomsday Election, like the way Bush-Kerry was, except that Bush-Kerry turned out not to be doomsday, mainly because Bush lost the privatize-Social-Security election. And now TSV's hearing people who seem to want his alliance saying something to the effect of, well yes we said past elections were doomsday elections, but this time we mean it. So, TSV wonders, are you saying you -didn't- mean it during Bush-Kerry, and if so, what substantive assurance can you give him that this actually -is- a doomsday election to the point where a -trump- victory means the end of everything? Are we just going to just throw in the towel and wave the white flag? Is everyone who wants Kamala to win and fails to get her to do so just going to cower and let -trump- do stuff because of whatever possible spin that says -trump- got political capital from his possibly upcoming victory? And if not, does that mean that the undecided voters feel like they're seeing through all the talk about a doomsday election and just seeing it as rhetoric? And if so, why isn't TSV allowed to feel the same way? Also, if it's truly a doomsday election, why doesn't TSV see Kamala making that actual pitch to undecided voters rather than -just- focus on economics and immigration where undecided voters are concerned? Is it because of that whole Ben Franklin thing about focusing on someone's self-interest? TSV wonders why anyone should think of what Ben Franklin said there as gospel as if we can't have a discussion about that now. Isn't maintaining a democracy in -everyone's- best interest? If the wrong person wins, will all those undecided voters continue to whistle past the graveyard and deny themselves as living in a dictatorship? So it's either one or two things for TSV. Either this -is- a doomsday election and somehow the undecided voters are just being too pigheaded and stubborn, or the undecided voters are right in believing that it's -not- a doomsday election and TSV's being sold a bill of goods by those who are supposed to be his allies and this is just Bush-Kerry all over again. These are the unanswered questions TSV has, along with whether or not Kamala's doing enough interviews to get analysts to stop claiming that no-one knows who she is, and TSV wants Insurgent to get him satisfactory answers to him on a silver platter rather than -just- talk about how terrible Chris Robinson is, or -trump- or JD Vance or Laura Loomer, or how terrible it is what Springfield Ohio is going through. None of that matters to TSV because if we go into late October with it -still- being 49-49 in all swing states, a Kamala win will almost certainly get challenged at the Supreme Court because Clarence Thomas and Sam Alito are personally corrupt for accepting bribes for favorable opinions. Even though Mark Elias sounding the alarm on the anti-certification movement was effectively his job interview as part of Kamala's election legal team, TSV doesn't see that team as having any chance in hell against a corrupt move-the-goalposts court system. That's why he wants to see the undecideds finally decide in Kamala's favor so he can personally present a slam-dunk case in front of the Supreme Court that they cannot deny or kabuki dance their way out of. Stay tuned.

So here's Tropical Soulvangical's general take on the election thus far. He thinks it's a good thing for Kamala to have done that interview with 6abc taking place in Jonestown PA within -trump- country, because that goes along the lines of doing more interviews so as to introduce yourself to people. He thinks it's kind of peculiar that criticisms of her not doing more interviews come from the -trump- campaign itself, because to him it sounds like a -constructive- criticism. He's more used to a criticism to the effect of Kamala somehow being a 'Marxist,' which burned down at the gate at the debate. He doesn't get another criticism from an immigrant journalist that she should have done more, preferably in the debate, about going after that whole dogs-n-cats thing, because he's not sure Kamala was any more aware than TSV itself of what dogs-n-cats-gate would turn into just in -trump's- first five or so words of, they're eating the dogs and cats, because just on the face of it, it made sense to TSV that Kamala would properly exercise the oh-come-on eyeroll choreography at just those five words. He did see her criticize the effects that that conspiracy theory had on Springfield, Ohio, with respect to all the lockdowns at schools and town halls when she did that journalist group interview. He did see mention on Morning Whoa on Insurgent about there being a prominent Creole restaurant in that town that apparently gets a lot of patronage, and not just from the Haitian immigrant community. He's also wondering whether in or near the town there's a Haitian community radio station, possibly on AM, and which also exemplifies the importance of AM, because he's not sure if such a station would necessarily work on FM. For one thing, FM has -way- too many stations on the dial, and they're all format-changing/singles-oriented/top-40/really cutthroat. Perhaps there are high school and college stations for Springfield on FM, but a Haitian community station TSV thinks would go far deeper than the superficiality of the FM sound would allow for. You really don't need crystal clear sound on discussions on that station, TSV doesn't think, nor crystal clear on the culturally enriching music that gets played on that station, namely from artists that are big in Haiti but maybe not as well known in the US. You're not going to get that from your smartphone. There's a lot about our Caribbean neighbors TSV doesn't think we know a whole lot about, because we tend to only see them from a tourist destination point of view. TSV hopes that prominent presenters from said station would do an interview on Insurgent to talk about both how dogs-n-cats-gate is making them worried, and a little bit more on the history of Haitian immigrants in the town, to turn otherwise negative press into a positive in a sense. TSV's further suggestions would be for Kamala to find other 6abc type local stations both in Michigan and Wisconsin to do interviews on, and he wants to contact 6abc to thank them for the interview and to do a followup with undecideds with whatever more -specific- questions they may have. He doesn't think it does much good for undecideds to say, well I don't know anything about Kamala, when they also don't want to specify what else they want to know, particularly when this is supposed to be a doomsday election, and you shouldn't be fidgeting over the question of sausage or pepperoni when your plane's going down.

OK people so by now you've seen the debate, except kind of for Tropical Soulvangelical who admits he kind of wussed out and just looked at the Cliff Notes summary of the debate footage. That's partly because most outlets that aren't Insurgent or the late show hosts have truly wanted for Kamala to have a "Biden" style fail at the debate, even though his understanding of Kamala told him that she was going to have -trump- for breakfast (though it was 9pm in the evening, a bit late for breakfast), and he saw her do so. Up to this point, said outlets kept on insisting that no-one knows who she is, and that she needs to define herself before -trump- defines her -for- her. The problem is, TSV truly believes said outlets, and he wants to call out three in particular, will -still- insist that nobody knows who she is despite apparently a very big set of ratings for the debate. TSV only saw a thumbnail of one video of swing voters' responses to the debate, but he's pretty sure at least one of those is going to be a plant who will say, well I still don't know anything about her! She didn't say anything about what she wants to do for the country! I have two kids in college about to try to find their first home once they graduate and Kamala hasn't explained how her economic plans will help them! And then said outlets, TSV expects, will mainline the plants without even looking at the possibility of their being plants, and then insist, well, the swing voters made clear that Kamala didn't say anything about what she wants do for the country. We heard from one swing voter who has two kids in college about to try to find their first home once they graduate express frustration over Kamala not explaining to them how her economic plans will help them. TSV firmly expects there to be plants posing as swing voters in the swing voter panels that said outlets will make no attempt to screen, and whom said outlets will quote said plant swing voters verbatim, and that said outlets will attempt to prevent the polls from meaningfully changing after the debate, and then point to the unchanged polls and say, Kamala failed to move the needle, and hence -trump- won the debate. Sure TSV saw a thumbnail/title from CNN saying "devastating" very likely meaning for -trump- but this is just the first six hours. How about the next 18 hours after that? What if even those outlets, TSV wonders, who gave the debate victory to Kamala will try to turn around and give it back to -trump- as above? So here are those three outlets that TSV wants to go after specifically, though he's not going to limit to those three: The New York Times, the Associated Press, National Public Radio. It's going to be these three outlets TSV firmly expects to spin the debate toward -trump- with their very oh so polite intellectualism, even though he claims that people in Illinois are eating dogs and cats, and everyone who tuned in heard him say that, and that was included in TSV's Cliff Notes. TSV would actually be -amazed- if any of the three outlets would even mention the dogs and cats bit. So in post-debate, TSV would be very interested in his part for the election to join with pro-principle petitioning groups to go after the outlets to make sure they don't spin towards margin-of-error polls that they insist don't move the needle. Oh, by the way, since NPR's been waging a personal war against Biden, particularly in their insistence that Russia was not going to invade Ukraine two weeks before Russia did so, TSV refers to them as National Putin Radio. So unless TSV finds those principled groups that'll hold the outlets' feet to the fire, we're all doomed, like he's been saying the past week.

Tropical Soulvangelical still thinks we're doomed ahead of the debate, but he's getting used to the idea that it's pretty much over for the country, though that's -if- predictions come out about Project 25 and polls still don't move the needle on the so-called blue wall. He doesn't want to dwell too much on the Dana Bash interview and a discussion about 1872, but here's the thing. Even though you can argue the similarities between 1872 and 2020/2021, TSV wanted there to be a followup on comparing 1876 and 2024. Did anyone propose a Project 1876 that would have made America into a dictatorship then, and if so, did America become a dictatorship, and if so, did America stay a dictatorship in near perpetuity to the modern day, and if so, why didn't anyone say during the Obama election that we were too doomed for there to be Change We Can Believe In? He hears comparisons between Hungary and America, as well as Venezuela and America, in terms of people who manage to stay in power, but to be fair, is America the same or all that similar to Hungary or Venezuela? Or for that matter, are Hungary and Venezuela more the same than they are different to -each other-? One thing TSV seems to remember is that Hungary and Venezuela were satellite states for the Soviet Union during the Cold War, so once the Cold War was over, countries such as Hungary and Venezuela had very delicate democratic institutions at best compared to America's more robust institutions. Understandably that's only -more- robust, and not totally ironclad by any means. But the last thing TSV wants to hear is that the election is our last best hope for democracy forever, and that once that hope fails, because he thinks it -will-, that someone says okay let's go to Plan B, and defeat Project 25 like we defeated the privatization of Social Security in 2005, because that would be moving the goal posts like we did in 2005. That would be Bush-Kerry all over again, and TSV will be absolutely infuriated. It's certainly possible that the politicians would be so inept and incompetent in the worst case scenario that they might not be able to get Project 25 off the ground and those figures and citizens that are against it would then be successful in killing Project 25 once and for all. Another thing TSV also notices as not mentioned is what happens if -trump- doesn't get the Congress he wants, and there's a shift on at least one side of the other party taking back the House? That party he's pretty sure would certainly kill Project 25 in its majority and as for the Senate in being in -trump's- corner after the election, would there be an effort to stop and stem Project 25 at the Senate level through possibly a walkout or some other public figure protest? It's hard for TSV to imagine someone as fatalistic as Chuck Schumer -ever- effectively leading such a protest, so it's going to have to come down to someone else, almost certainly since Schumer also led the anti-Biden coalition, so how's -that- democratic? There's a lot more unanswered questions such as these to unpack for TSV, but he goes into the debate with lowered expectations that most outlets other than Insurgent would cover the aftermath of the debate with any shred of integrity whatsoever. He fully expects most outlets to try to not talk about -trump's- failings during the debate or Kamala making her targets. He doesn't think they'll -ever- report a Kamala victory in the debate, and instead he expects them to just say, there was some kind of debate and now let's talk about the murder of the day. They might actually turn to footage of a high speed chase collision as a distraction like with the Attack Dog Network, and only Insurgent and the late show hosts will call them out on it, and polls for the blue wall will -still- be within the margin of error, because the debate would have failed to move the needle, like TSV hearing John Fetterman essentially predict, and that's because the outlets want to keep that needle there in their -protrump- personal corruption, and that's how TSV doesn't see any kind of Kamala victory whatsoever no matter what happens after the debate. So that's how it's over for the country, and how TSV still hates elections no matter how democratic or un- they are.

So here's Tropical Soulvangelical's update from our post we made the other day. In short, we're all still doomed. TSV envisions that about every couple days or so till the election, his comments will still be the same: we're all doomed, we're all doomed, we're all doomed. That's because he doesn't expect anything to change between now and then that the newsradio he listens to first thing in the morning would be -forced- to admit what -trump's- done wrong in the election cycle so far. TSV hasn't heard anything about the desecration of Arlington National Cemetery, or the off-the-wall and offensive things he's said at both rallies and interviews. He had to find that out from Insurgent whom TSV hasn't heard has any presence on actual radio waves whatsoever. He's thinking that maybe Insurgent thinks itself too yuppie to not go highbrow like with Sirius XM or the Internet, because he's hoping that Insurgent's online description says, oh by the way, our programming is also syndicated on these radio stations AM/FM now that TSV's got FM tuned into better. But while he's there he sees a video title saying "You're Being Manipulated!!!" when Insurgent itself does not provide a wider enough antidote that he thinks they could. TSV still doesn't understand how a majority of Americans had -ever- heard of Project 25, let alone find out enough about it to poll against it, and please don't tell TSV something to the effect, oh they just went to the Internet. You can't say that, because Ordinary Joe Six Pack will never go to the Internet except for porn, and maybe also QAnon, and almost certainly never look at Insurgent in a million years, because that's only for political junkies or something. For Insurgent to be yelling at TSV with respect to Manipulated and Desecration can't amount to an election strategy of sorts, because that's just preaching to the choir, and TSV is only one potential voter. You've got possibly 50 million Joe Six Pack swing voters in swing states waiting, apparently, to have Kamala introduce herself to them. He doesn't understand the notion that the upcoming debate is her opportunity to do so when he also hears that undecided voters are the least likely people to watch debates, because again that's probably for political junkies like Insurgent apparently is. He doesn't see either Insurgent or Kamala doing anything to get the radio to acknowledge that she is or has introduced herself. He doesn't want his donation dollars to -only- go to rallies and speeches. He's aware that donation dollars go to door-to-door efforts, and he's wondering why anyone, including the radio, thinks that's -not- a way for Kamala to introduce herself. Also, he understands that the Donkey Convention got more TV ratings than the Elephant Convention did, so isn't -that- not Kamala introducing herself? And what's the radio's proof that neither effort counts as a national introduction? Or that interview on CNN? There's a lot more for TSV to unpack, but this is the reason why he doesn't understand elections. TSV uses the radio as a personal alarm system, and every other means of gathering info as following up on what he hears where he deems necessary. He's not saying everyone else has to do that, but he doesn't want anyone to tell him, oh well that's because you're -intelligent-, because, again, him as one person being intelligent isn't going to magically make Kamala win no matter how much he donates to her campaign. The campaign's already got 500 mil in the back compared to -trump's- 150, and she -still- polls within the margin of error in swing states. TSV's thinking that the Joe Six Pack swing voters in those swing states are hearing the radio tell them, Kamala still has to introduce herself, and then the swing voters say, oh well Kamala still has to introduce herself so therefore I don't know anything about her, so maybe I'll vote for -trump- instead. What if that person -also- tuned into the convention and also got mailings and door-to-door visits? TSV wonders how much good that does once that person goes back to the radio and still believes, Kamala hasn't introduced herself when she already did so for that one person at least. TSV believes that even now is early September, it'll be late October and he'll -still- hear, it's late October, and Kamala still hasn't introduced herself. That's another way in which he's reminded of Bush v Kerry 2004, hence he thinks we're doomed.

So here's Tropical Soulvangelical's take on the election thus far, and generally speaking he thinks we're pretty much screwed. As far as he's concerned Kamala should be polling ahead -outside- the margin of error in those so-called "blue wall" states at this point. He remembers when Biden was polling -behind- and -inside- the margin of error, and TSV's take was that it was only within the margin of error, and even now he thinks the Anti-Biden Centrist Donkeys who essentially stabbed him in the back did so by misinterpreting the polls and probably never themselves believed that Biden never had a chance. He also doesn't want to hear things such as, well, Obama was polling this at this point or Clinton was polling that at this point, because he doesn't think you can go back to the past on this one, and therefore it's just -wrong-. Obama and Clinton never had to deal with Project 25 which TSV isn't seeing Insurgent as analyzing as being based on the laws of North Korea like he thinks they should. He, too, hasn't read those 900 pages, but he's pretty sure page 527 talks about special haircuts for all males in the population like it is in North Korea or something. TSV still likes both Kamala and Tim Walz a lot, but he's thinking about a tabloid whose current headline reads something to the effect of, "Kam't Explain It, not even Kamala's supporters can say what she stands for." Why on Earth isn't that ringing alarm bells for people, TSV wonders. He then goes on Insurgent and they seemed to not even notice that there's this headline. Their video list is on the sunny-side up, Kamala ahead, Trump behind, joyful enthusiasm biased side of things. TSV really doesn't entirely believe that the concept of joyful enthusiasm is really all that helpful to -any- election campaign, because in -his- personal experience, the most severe and major problems he's ever had in life he's solved using grim determination and a reality check that says that we basically live in a terrible world. TSV doesn't want to jinx Kamala like he jinxed John Kerry in 2004. He's looking back now and thinks that was pretty much -his- fault. The buck stops with TSV, and no-one else. He doesn't want to jinx Kamala, but it's his duty and obligation as a patriotic American to call a spade a spade, and how the concept of joyful enthusiasm -is itself- a form of complacency. The only time when TSV experiences joyful enthusiasm is when he's going to a drum circle, or jamming along with a concert, or participating in a rock-n-roll discussion group online, or listening to a rock bio or documentary while he's having pizza or BSK or a cheesesteak or some other really bad food along with some ice cream. That to him is joyful enthusiasm, but once he gets back in his car again these days after all that is over, he knows it's generally terrible, particularly with respect to how we as a society never really learned the lessons of the pandemic or ever admitted guilt and endured penance as a result. We basically used the vaccine as a cheap out, and now he sees our paying that price now this year. It's bucket listing the basics now, and if Kamala does somehow manage to win, TSV's thinking that'll just consummate our personal corruption even more, because then we'll have a Kamala victory to hide our shortcomings behind so that we never attack those sins head-on. So never mind the so-called joyful enthusiasm, because TSV's convinced we're all doomed.