Tropical Soulvangelical skimmed through the Wikipedia article about Allan Lichtman with great interest, but frankly finds absolutely no reassurance in Mr. Lichtman's prediction of a Harris win. This is because despite that Keys To The White House set of 13 true-or-false questions, TSV finds it just sets up a very fatal overconfidence and wishful thinking situation. He's going to look back to see what Mr. Lichtman said about 2004, Bush-Kerry, because that's the election that this year's election reminds him of, mainly because of the doomsday trope that leads TSV to believe that -trump- may very well win by a landslide -but- TSV doesn't believe that means the automatic end of democracy no matter what -trump- tries to do. In order for that to happen, TSV believes that all democratic activists would need to be jumping off bridges the Wednesday after, and you don't need to be Allan Lichtman to tell you that that's just not realistic. You just need life experience with TSV has -a little more of- than he did 20 years ago. That's partly because if this race is close, -trump- won't have a mandate to kill democracy, and if the race is supposedly more about the economy than about democracy, -trump's- mandate would be about economics rather than democracy. That said, TSV only partially agrees with Hillary Clinton and Michael Cohen that -trump- would at least -try- to do a lot of damage, but TSV looks back to -trump's- attempt to repeal Funny Named Care. Sure it was because of John McCain that that didn't happen, but TSV observes that -trump- never tried to as actively repeal Funny Named Care during the remainder of his term. So begins TSV's skepticism about the doomsday trope though he can never fully rule it out. It's going to concern him that on those Insurgent 'radio' segments he hears about the doomsday trope that there's going to be a whole variety of possibly logical fallacy type arguments, including red herring, that are going to be made about how supposedly doomsday is inevitable if the wrong side of the coin faces up when tossed and landing to the ground. By contrast, TSV would greatly follow any critique Michael Cohen might make of KTTWH in what TSV expects to be Mr. Cohen's case as to why KTTWH cannot possibly predict the election with accuracy this time around, because Mr. Cohen knows -trump- far better than Mr. Lichtman does, and how -trump- himself is not one of the 13 keys. Maybe there needs to be a 14th -trump- key? But one last thing that TSV found great interest in is Mr. Lichtman's strong disagreement with the Centrist Donkeys' decision to pressure Biden out of the race, partly because TSV and Mr. Lichtman appear in agreement that the Centrist Donkeys did in fact -pressure- Biden out of the race. But TSV wants the Democratic Coalition to make plans for a New Resistance because, again, despite Mr. Lichtman's predictions, TSV points to how a close race tends to favor a Not-Donkey candidate and not a Donkey one, and hence TSV sees no realistic path to victory for Harris. He'd like to be wrong that Mr. Lichtman would be right, but he wishes closeness of race, too, were one of the KTTWH's.

Tropical Soulvanglical doesn't think Eric Adams should resign out of being indicted, but TSV feels realistic enough to believe that Mr. Adams should not run for a second term. He's already unpopular with 28% of the vote, and the indictments only serve to counter Mr. Adams's pro-principle arguments, but here's the thing. It's Mr. Adams himself -standing- for principle that TSV sees at stake, not the concept of principle itself. But that hasn't stopped what TSV observes as the highly -unprincipled- extreme Squad as getting political capital out of saying he should resign immediately. They appear to wish to not only win but -dominate- the politics of Gracie Mansion in terms of the culture of personal corruption in the city to the opposing viewpoints of those value voter city residents who believe, like TSV, that National Principle taking the form of Municipal Principle has to be top priority, even above economic interests. TSV doesn't believe -for a second- that a Squad Mayor of New York City would even -consider- reaching out to pro-principle value voters, because from the point of view of a Squad Mayor, if one point of view is false, namely Eric Adams himself, then the other one somehow -must- be true, and that's the apparent point of view that the concept of principle doesn't matter either philosphically or culturally, and are too likely to use the office of Mayor to browbeat the residents accordingly instead of helping solve their problems.