Sunday, December 27, 2020

So here's the Heir's take on predictions that China will overtake the US economically by 2030.  Even if it does happen in the way the economists forecast, the Heir doesn't believe it'll last, maybe 2-3 years at the very most, and then he believes the US and China will be roughly tied for first before swapping first place every other year or so.  The Heir references the Atlantic article Why The US Will Outcompete China along with a Pew Research poll showing Unfavorable Views Of China Reach Historic Highs, but he also cautions the westernized type-a economists not to view cultural interactions with the severely limiting assumptions as he sees them doing.  For one thing, those who care about ongoing US independence need to brainstorm those things the US can do that China can't and never will.  For example, free speech and free and fair elections.  This past election the Heir observes as the most secure election that has possibly ever taken place.  This should set aside our reservations about our election process enough for China to be sick with envy that we even have elections at all.  Secondly, free speech demonstrations like the ones with Black Lives Matter.  Even with things like Lafayette Square, you still can't have our kinds of demonstrations in China.  If you tried, BLM's leadership would be captured and tortured and held indefinitely in a labor camp.  That's something China should be ashamed of, and should be dangled in front of them any time they want to play economic hardball, because then we'd make it clear to them we know whom we're dealing with.  This is the reason why the Heir believes China is in the basement on public opinion around the world as per the Pew poll, because public image does ultimately matter if China wants to do business with the free world.  Thirdly, the US stands ready to have its first woman of color head of state.  Maybe there was a 2 year empress in China's history 2000 years ago, but nothing like that in the past 100 years.  And you're never going to see the first Uighur Chinese president or the first Tibetan Chinese President like the way we had the first black President in 2008.  These the Heir points out as reasons why if China has any real hope of competing with the US economically, they also have to compete culturally, and that they can't do without a Chinese perestroika of some sort, which China already ruled out in the 2000s under Hu Jin Tao.  So the Heir proclaims, China take your first place if you really think it'll do you any good, because you should be careful what you wish for.


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